Now that we know who the last four teams are that are fighting for a championship, let's take a look at their chances and what it will take for them win the title.
San Antonio Spurs - 10%
The Spurs have the most experience of any of the four playoff teams. Unfortunately with that experience comes age, which is the main reason I only give them a ten percent chance of winning the championship. Of the last four standing the Spurs have the worst defense, not that that's a knock on them. The Grizzlies, Heat, and Pacers have top-notch defenses. Yes the Spurs have a 1-0 lead on the Grizzlies, but the Grizz have lost the first game of each series so far and are still here. If they were to make it past the Grizzlies, which is very possible for a resilient Spurs team, they're going to be banged up and fatigued going into the finals. The only way I see the Spurs knocking off the Grizzlies is to get off to a fast start and win both of their opening home games. In the finals they will face off against either the Heat or the Pacers. Both teams will pose problems for the Spurs athletically. Lucky for the Spurs their best defender, Kawhi Leonard, will be guarding either team's best player, LeBron James and Paul George. They won't be able to blow out the Heat, and the Pacers don't get blown out very often (30-2 Knicks Game Two run in the Garden aside), meaning that they'll have to win games down the stretch. They've proven before that they can do this, which is why I gave them a chance at all, but it's not likely that they can win two more series this post season.
Indiana Pacers - 11%
The Pacers should feel good coming out of their series victory over the Knicks. Their defense is where it needs to be after limiting a Knicks team that averaged 100 points per game (ppg) during the regular season to just 89.5 ppg during the second round. The Heat are a different offensive machine than the Knicks give-the-ball-to-Tucker offense with Carmelo and J.R. Smith. There are shooters everywhere on the court, and that now includes LeBron. The truly only knock against him during his career was his ineffectiveness with his long-range shooting, and the perceived incompetence in the clutch, but that's for another day. The offensive prowess of Miami along with their stingy defense create a much bigger problem than the Knicks did. Another concern I have has been the inefficiency of Paul George shooting the ball. In the Knicks series he shot a miserable 37-99 (37.4%) from the field and an even more unflattering 12-45 (26.7%) from behind the arc. He'll need to improve upon those numbers to give the Pacers a better chance. Their only real advantage against the Heat is their front line, but David West and Roy Hibbert are not consistent scoring threats. To win this series they'd need to keep the heat under 90 points as they did against the Knicks (good luck with that). I have them a one percent better chance at winning the title than the Spurs merely because I think they would beat the Spurs if they were to meet in the finals. The Grizzlies would be a different story. They are even more stacked up front than the Pacers. Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol would outwork the Pacers bigs and I wouldn't be surprised if the Grizzlies beat the Pacers in five games. If the Pacers were to beat the Heat and eliminate the best team in basketball, that would definitely give them the confidence they need to win a championship. But that is a gigantic if, even though the Pacers won two of three in the regular season (Key Words: regular season).
Memphis Grizzlies - 24%
The Grizzlies are the Heat's biggest threat to repeat this year. Again yes they are down 0-1 to the Spurs, but they have two of the three best big men left standing, Tim Duncan in that mix also, and their defense is tenacious. You cannot beat the heat in a series unless you play great defense, dominate in the paint, and don't turn the ball over. Tony Allen is the best perimeter defender in the NBA. Combine him with veterans Zach Randolph and Tayshaun Prince who have been solid defenders for years, and the Defensive Player of the Year, Marc Gasol, the Grizzlies are in prime shape. Let's also not forget that Mike Conley was third in the league with 2.2 steals a game. The Heat's biggest issue this season was rebounding, they were dead last in the entire league. The Grizz came in at 11th in rebounding and should look to be very physical with them. Yes Durant averaged 30 points a game against the Grizzlies, but if you look at his fourth quarter numbers, he was clearly fatigued and roughed up by that point in the game. They will try to do the same thing to LeBron, again, good luck with that. LeBron is much tougher than KD and he's used to being hammered game in and game out. Now to the tournovers, the Grizzlies were seventh in the league in fewest turnovers, taking good care of the ball, which would limit the Heat's fastbreak chances. I believe the Grizzlies will get past the Spurs with their powerhouse style of basketball and make it to the finals where they will have their hands full in South Beach.
Miami Heat - 55%
The almighty Heat have shown that you don't need a truly dominant big man to win in the NBA. All you need is a LeBron James and you'll do just fine. I said at the end of the season last year that the Heat should repeat this year and I'm sticking with it. Little did I know at the time that they would not only bring in Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis, and Chris Anderson, but that their biggest threat in the Oklahoma City Thunder would get weaker by trading away James Harden. The Heat are clearly the best team in the league by far, hence such a high percentage in winning it all for the second year in a row. How do you defend these guys? Pressure the shooters, you let Lebron and company have walks in the park on the way to the basket. Clog the lane, then you allow Lebron to slash towards the basket and dish it out to one of their many shooters. There is no formula to stop the heat. Maybe one of these teams should bring in Jim Boeheim to teach his ferocious 2-3 zone that has made Syracuse such a defensive force for years. The only real concern I have is with Dwayne Wade's health. He looked better in game 5 against the Bulls going 7-13 for 18 points, 5 boards, and 6 assists. As proven last year, LeBron may need Dwayne to raise his level of play once or twice a series to pull out a win. I think he can still do that and I think the Heat obviously have the best chance to hang a 2012-13 banner.
Series Predictions
Eric Brantley:
Western Conference Finals: Spurs vs. Grizzlies - Grizzlies win in 7
Eastern Conference Finals: Heat vs. Pacers - Heat win in 6
Finals: Heat vs. Grizzlies - Heat win in 6
Eastern Conference Finals: Heat vs. Pacers - Heat win in 6
Finals: Heat vs. Grizzlies - Heat win in 6
Baz:
Western Conference Finals: Spurs vs. Grizzlies - Spurs win in 6
Eastern Conference Finals: Heat vs. Pacers - Heat win in 5
Finals: Heat vs. Spurs- Heat win in 5
Eastern Conference Finals: Heat vs. Pacers - Heat win in 5
Finals: Heat vs. Spurs- Heat win in 5
0 Comments:
Post a Comment