Thursday, June 6, 2013

NBA Finals Preview & Predictions

Written By Eric Brantley 

1. The Spurs don't care who they play.
The Spurs believe they can beat anyone, and they should. After sweeping the Grizzlies, the Spurs are a dominant 12-2 in these playoffs. The last two series helped prepare them for the Heat. The Heat are at their best when they're hitting threes off of LeBron's penetration and getting into transition off of great defense and forcing turnovers. In the conference semis they faced a formidable Golden State team that was the best three point shooting team in the playoffs. After a slow start to the series, the Spurs found a way to slow down their three point onslaught to move on. In the conference championship against Memphis, they shredded arguably the best defensive team in the league for an average of 99 points a game, nearly 10 more points a game than their regular season league leading 89.3 average. Greg Popovich is the best active coach in the league and has a huge advantage in the coaching matchup against Erik Spolestra. The Spurs will be ready after 9 days off.
2. LeBron needs to be... LeBron
If not for a defensive collapse at the end of game one the heat could be at home watching. LeBron didn't get much help from the other pieces of the "big three". Dwayne Wade looked inept on defense trying to guard Paul George and Lance Stevenson, he turned the ball over 20 times, and only averaged 15 points a game. He only reached 20 points in game 7, which was by far his best game. Chris Bosh looked even worse shooting a putrid 38% from the field. I may be wrong but I'm not too confident in my starting center if he's shooting 38% from the field, chucking up 16 threes in a series (including 5 in game 2), and averaging a whopping (wait for it)... 4.3 rebounds a game. Add in the fact that the only good three point shooting games were games 3 and 6, and you can see the Heat haven't been on their game. If these trends continue it'll come down to LeBron taking over and adding to his already astounding legacy to pull off a series win against San Antonio. D Wade had a great game seven, minus his 5 turnovers, and his ability to play at that level would be huge in the title defense effort. I'm not expecting much more from Bosh, so this will be a hard fought battle. Speaking of Bosh...

3. Bosh will be in a different uniform next year
Lastly, let me start with a disclaimer. This is complete and pure speculation. Now that I've said that, Bosh will be gone next year. Even if the Heat repeat, they will trade Chris Bosh. He has become nothing more than a perimeter shooter in Miami's offense. If they all wanted was a 6'10 shooter, they'd play Rashard Lewis a whole lot more minutes. That being said, he still is a skilled big man. We cannot discredit what he did in Toronto, that was just three seasons ago. He has a value on the trade market. The Heat need size up front. There are a number of teams that could use Chris Bosh's services. I'll give you a quick scenario:

Trade Chris Bosh to Cleveland for Anderson Varejao and Marreese Speights and whatever throw away contracts to make the salary caps work. The Cavs would get a much needed proven veteran scorer in Bosh to further mentor Tristan Thompson and help put the Cavs into serious playoff contention (maybe with a surprise selection of Otto Porter with the number 1 overall pick?). And the Heat would get 2 bigs for the price of one and getting a guy in Varejao who would bring a lot if energy and rebounds. Speights is a solid post scorer who does well on the offensive glass also.

There are many other teams that could put together a package, maybe even including a lottery pick to acquire Chris Bosh's services.

NBA Finals Predictions
Many people don't like watching the Spurs for their style of play, but they've evolved over the years as a team. They can run the fast break, they have shooters everywhere and Tony Parker can put on a show every time on the court. They're more exciting than they're thought of, but either way, this will be a close series. The Spurs have more championship experience than the Heat and it was, for the majority, all together for San Antonio's big 3. That being said they're playing against LeBron James. I can't bet against him after getting his first ring and then responding by working even harder and coming back better than ever, having his best season thus far, and reeling off 27 straight wins. He's far and away the best player on the planet, and I expect him to find a way to get it done. All he needs is a little help and I think they'll give him enough to win his second ring in as many seasons. I think D Wade will play closer to the game 7 D Wade than the game 6 version. The role players will step like they did last year in the finals, and I have the Miami Heat winning in 6 games.

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